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CARAMMIA MARCELLO
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programma)
The large-scale, high-frequency and real-timeliness of Big Data (BD) provide unprecedented opportunities for understanding, monitoring and forecasting social and political phenomenons. Just to provide some examples, real-time tweets can be used to monitor moods and opinions as well as to forecast election results; online polls and surveys can be used to measure political preferences; political speeches can be used to trace the relevance of policy issues over time and space; geotagged event data can be used for monitoring and early warning of social uprisings or conflicts. Similarly, the potential of BD for the evaluation of policy programmes is enormous. Big Data, and the Data Science (DS) needed to analyse them, represent the largest transformation of social -science for decades – so much so that a ‘new’ field of studies emerged that is referred to as Computational Social Science.
This course focuses on the methods for designing political (and social) science research, with a special emphasis on innovative (big) data sources and DS methods. We will discuss how to design a political science research project, from asking good research questions to selecting data sources, formulating and testing hypotheses, and evaluating findings. Throughout, we will highlight the key differences between designing research for exploring problems, for developing theories, and for making forecasts – and we will attempt to build bridges between them.
While you will be expected to pick up your topic and develop your own research project throughout the course, this is not a primarily technical course. Rather than on analytical techniques or statistical modelling, the emphasis will be on developing the ability to design, carry out and evaluate research that exploits the potential of big data and data science to understand political and social problems.
NOTA BENE: Students should not be intimidated by the amount of readings! Before each seminar, you will normally be expected to read one chapter on the ‘general’ topic under discussion. One additional reading will normally be a piece of research (see research in focus below) that we will use to make sense of how ‘general’ questions are addressed ‘in practice’ in applied research.
In addition to the single topics enumerated below, we will also have 'research in focus' sessions to discuss particular applications of computational political science.
RESEARCH IN FOCUS
Computational political science: applications of big data science to political science research/I.
• Big data in surveys for the study of elections, public opinion and representation (Warshaw in Alvarez 2016).
• Political event real time data (Beieler et al in Alvarez 2016).
• Network analysis (Sinclair in Alvarez 2016).
• Social media and protests (Tucker et al in Alvarez 2016).
• Social marketing for smart government (Griepentrog in Alvarez 2016).
• Machine learning algorithms for election fraud detection (Levin et al in Alvarez 2016).
• Social media for nowcasting and forecasting elections (Ceron/Curini/Iacus 2017).
Computational political science: applications of big data science to political science research/II.
• International Trade with Big Data C. A. Hidalgo, B. Klinger, A.-L. Barab´asi, R. Hausmann. “The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations.” Science 317.5837 (2007): 482-487
• Lobbying and Campaign Contribution. In Song Kim. “Political Cleavages within Industry: Firm-level Lobbying for Trade Liberalization.” American Political Science Review, 111.1: 1-20.
• Stephen Ansolabehere, John M. de Figueiredo, and James M. Snyder. “Why is There so Little Money in U.S. Politics?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17.1 (2003): 105-130
Identifying Behavioral Patterns using Massive Data Reading
• Gary King, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E Roberts. “How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression.” American Political Science Review, 107.2: 326-343.
• Pierson, E., Simoiu, C., Overgoor, J., Corbett-Davies, S., Ramachandran, V., Phillips, C., and Goel, S. (2017). “A large-scale Analysis of Racial Disparities in Police Stops across the United States.” arXiv preprint arXiv:1706.05678.
Measuring Ideological and Political Preferences using Social Network Data
• Robert Bond and Solomon Messing. “Quantifying Social Media’s Political Space: Estimating Ideology from Publicly Revealed Preferences on Facebook.” American Political Science Review 109.1 (2015): 62-78.
• Pablo Barbera “Birds of the Same Feather Tweet Together: Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation Using Twitter Data.” Political Analysis 23.1 (2014): 76-91
What do Politicians Do?
• Justin Grimmer, Solomon Messing, and Sean Westwood. “How Words and Money Cultivate a Personal Vote: The Effect of Legislator Credit Claiming on Constituent Credit Allocation.” American Political Science Review, 106.4 (2012), 703-719
Big Administrative Data: Promises and Pitfalls
• Connelly, R., Playford, C.J., Gayle, V., Dibben, C., 2016. “The Role of Administrative Data in the Big Data Revolution in Social Science Research.” Social Science Research,
Special issue on Big Data in the Social Sciences 59, 112
• Kopczuk, W., Saez, E., Song, J., 2010. “Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data Since 1937.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 125, 91128.
• Machine Learning Algorithms in Society. Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. 2018. “Human Decisions and Machine Predictions.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 133 (1):23793
CORE TEXTS
• Alvarez, R.M. (2016). Computational Social Science: Discovery and Prediction. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
• Kellstedt, P.M. & Whitten, G.D. (2018). The Fundamentals of Political Science Research. Cambridge Core.
• Toshkov, D. (2016). Research Design in Political Science. London New York, NY: Palgrave.
SUPPLEMENTARY READINGS
• Ceron, A., Curini, L. & Iacus, S.M. (2017). Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections with Social Media. London ; New York, NY: Routledge.
• Cioffi-Revilla, C. (2017). Introduction to Computational Social Science: Principles and Applications (2 edition.). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag
• Gerring, J. (2012). Social Science Methodology: A Unified Framework (2 edition). New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Jungherr, A. (2015). Analyzing Political Communication with Digital Trace Data: The Role of Twitter Messages in Social Science Research. Cham: Springer Verlag.
• Lowndes, V., Marsh, D. & Stoker, G. (2017). Theory and Methods in Political Science (4 edition). Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.